Typhoon ULYSSES (VAMCO) Advisory No. 07

24-hr Outlook: TY ULYSSES (VAMCO) is forecast to move almost westward with a forward speed of 21 km/hr, and will continue to intensify, becoming a Category 2 Typhoon prior in making landfall over Polillo Island & Northern Quezon later tonight. The CORE (Eye + Eyewall) is expected to pass about 100 km to the north of Naga City, CamSur between 2-3 PM this afternoon while passing very close to Calaguas Island Group. The typhoon will make landfall over Polillo Island Group on or before midnight tonight, and will make another landfall over Northern Quezon via General Nakar during the early hours of Thursday. Between 2 to 8 AM Thursday, the CORE will cross Central Luzon, passing along the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales. It will then emerge over the coastal areas of Masinloc in Zambales before noontime Thursday.

• Location of Center: Near the Coastal Waters of Catanduanes & Camarines Sur
• Coordinates: 14.5°N lat  124.0°E lon
• Distance 1: 54 km north-northwest of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 93 km northeast of Siruma, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3: 131 km northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 4: 317 km east of Metropolitan Manila

• Landfall: Over Polillo Island Group (Northern Quezon), between 10 to 11 PM Tonight – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 2: Along Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Border, between 2 to 3 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, QUEZON – Today.
• REST OF LUZON including NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION (NCR) – beginning Tonight through Thursday (Nov 12).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• NORTHERN CAMARINES NORTE, COASTAL AREAS OF SIRUMA, GARCHITORENA, CARAMOAN (in Camarines Sur), NORTHERN CATANDUANES – Today.
• COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN QUEZON & AURORA – beginning Tonight.

• Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Northern Samar, Bicol Region, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan – Today.
• Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Western Luzon (from Ilocos Norte down to Batangas – Beginning Tonight until Thursday (Nov 12).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY MORNING: Exits Central Luzon via the coastal waters of Zambales, heading westward over the West Philippine Sea…about 66 km NW of Olongapo City, Zambales [8AM Nov 12: 15.3°N 119.9°E @ 120 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• FRIDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while continuing moving west towards the South China Sea, re-intensifies …about 496 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Nov 13: 15.5°N 115.4°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
• SATURDAY MORNING: Already outside of the PAR, re-intensifies as it approaches the coastal waters of Vietnam…about 815 km SSW of Hong Kong, China  [8AM Nov 14: 15.6°N 111.2°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (935 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 135 km from the center