Severe Tropical Storm ULYSSES (VAMCO) Advisory No. 06

24-hr Outlook: STS ULYSSES (VAMCO) is forecast to move almost westward with a forward speed of 20 km/hr, and could become a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) today. The developing core (eye+eyewall) is expected to pass more or less 150 km north of Naga City, Camarines Sur between 2 to 5 PM this afternoon, and over or very close to Polillo Island Group before midnight tonight. It shall eventually make landfall along or very near the Southern Aurora-Northern Quezon Border at around 2 AM tomorrow (Nov 12), and will traverse Central Luzon across the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, and Zambales between 4 to 8 AM tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon, the core of Ulysses will emerge over the West Philippine Sea, accelerating westward. 

• Location of Center: Over the Western Part of Central Philippine Sea
• Coordinates: 14.7°N lat  125.2°E lon
• Distance 1: 134 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 248 km east-northeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3: 446 km east of Metro Manila

• Landfall: Over Polillo Island Group (Northern Quezon), between 10 to 11 PM Tonight – with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 2: Along Northern Quezon-Southern Aurora Border, between 2 to 3 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, QUEZON – Today.
• REST OF LUZON including NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION (NCR) – beginning Tonight through Thursday (Nov 12).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• NORTHERN CAMARINES NORTE, COASTAL AREAS OF SIRUMA, GARCHITORENA, CARAMOAN (in Camarines Sur), NORTHERN CATANDUANES – Today.
• COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHERN QUEZON & AURORA – beginning Tonight.

• Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Northern Samar, Bicol Region, Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan – Today.
• Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Western Luzon (from Ilocos Norte down to Batangas – Beginning Tonight until Thursday (Nov 12).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall along Southern Aurora-Northern Quezon Area…about 42 km E of Gapan City, Nueva Ecija [2AM Nov 12: 15.3°N 121.4°E @ 160 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving west across the West Philippine Sea…about 406 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Nov 13: 15.3°N 116.3°E @ 130 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of the PAR, re-intensifies as it heads for Vietnam…about 798 km SSW of Hong Kong, China  [2AM Nov 14: 15.5°N 112.0°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 475 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (900 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (720 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 65 km from the center