Tropical Storm KABAYAN (JELAWAT) Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: TS KABAYAN is forecast to weaken into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it traverses the rugged terrain of Mindanao, and will continue moving westward at 22 kph across Central Mindanao. The center is expected to pass approximately 20 km north of Davao City on or before noon today and will be over Cotabato this afternoon. Later tonight, KABAYAN will emerge over the Moro Gulf, and will be over Zamboanga Sibugay-Zamboanga City by early tomorrow morning (Dec 19).

Meanwhile, TS KABAYAN’s circulation will bring moderate to heavy/intense rainfall across Visayas and Mindanao today.  It will be more intense along Caraga, Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, Lanao del Sur, Zamboanga Del Norte, Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Guimaras, & Southern Panay.  Meanwhile, the storm will also enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and the Shear Line across Eastern Luzon and the Bicol Region today.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the Town of Manay, Davao Oriental (near 7.2°N 126.5°E)
• Distance 1:  40 km northeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental
• Distance 2:  115 km east of Davao City, Davao del Sur
• Distance 3:  160 km east of Kidapawan City, North Cotabato

• Landfall now occurring over Davao Oriental.

• Whole of Mindanao, Leyte Provinces, Bohol, Cebu, Negros Provinces, Camiguin, Siquijor ~ Today through early Tomorrow (Tue, Dec 19).
• Sulu Archipelago & Palawan ~ beginning Tonight through Tomorrow (Tue Dec 19).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a TD as it moves towards Cotabato Province…about 37 km NW of Davao City [2PM Dec 18: 7.4°N 125.2°E @ 55-75 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens further while passing over Zamboanga Sibugay-Zamboanga City Area…about 70 km NNE of Zamboanga City [2AM Dec 19: 7.5°N 122.3°E @ 45-65 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1003 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (525 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.