Tropical Storm KABAYAN (JELAWAT) Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TS KABAYAN is forecast to move westward at 25 kph, traversing Central Mindanao tomorrow morning, via the northern portions of Davao de Oro & Davao del Norte, Southern Bukidnon, and Lanao Provinces. Then around 2PM tomorrow, it will be in the vicinity of Lanao del Norte. During the passage across the rugged terrain of Mindanao, the storm is expected to weaken rapidly into a remnant area of Low Pressure.

Meanwhile, TS KABAYAN’s circulation will bring moderate to heavy/intense rainfall across Visayas and Mindanao today and tomorrow.  It will be more intense along Caraga, Davao Region, Northern Mindanao, Lanao del Sur, Zamboanga Del Norte, Leyte, Bohol, Cebu, Negros, Guimaras, & Southern Panay.  Meanwhile, the storm will also enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and the Shear Line across Eastern Luzon and the Bicol Region today and tomorrow.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the South Philippine Sea (near 7.6°N 128.5°E)
• Distance 1:  255 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur
• Distance 2:  235 km east of Cateel, Davao Oriental
• Distance 3:  370 km east of Valencia City, Bukidnon

• Along Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area by early tomorrow morning (Dec 18), between 1 to 4 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of 70-80%.

• Rest of Visayas, Davao Region, Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Lanao del Sur, Zamboanga Peninsula ~ Today through Tomorrow (Mon, Dec 18).
• Sulu Archipelago & Palawan ~ beginning Tomorrow (Mon, Dec 18) through Tuesday (Dec 19).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Along the coastal waters of Davao Oriental, prepares to make landfall, weakens into a TD…about 60 km ESE of Cateel, Davao Oriental [2AM Dec 18: 7.6°N 126.9°E @ 55-75 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a remnant low pressure while in the vicinity of Lanao del Norte…about 45 km WSW of Marawi City, Lanao del Sur [2PM Dec 18: 7.9°N 123.9°E @ 35-50 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 510 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  1002 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (715 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (555 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.