Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE) Advisory No. 05

24-hr Outlook: TS PAENG is forecast to move west-northwest with a forward speed of 23 km/hr, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later tonight. It will make landfall over Catanduanes by early tomorrow, and then traverse Partido District (Camarines Sur) between 3 to 6 AM tomorrow, passing 40 km north of Naga City.  At around 8 AM tomorrow, the center of the storm will be in the vicinity of Daet, Camarines Norte.

The storm’s rainbands and trough together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will continue to bring windy conditions (30-60 kph) across Luzon, becoming wet and rainy with severe thunderstorms & squally conditions across Bicol Region, Visayas, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, & Mindanao today.  The risk of floods and landslides is currently at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the Central Philippine Sea, near the coastal waters of Northern Samar (near 12.2°N 127.0°E)
• Distance 1:  255 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar
• Distance 2: 340 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 3: 440 km east-southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Landfall 1:  Over Southern Catanduanes on Saturday early morning (Oct 29), between 2 to 3 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 2:  Over Partido District (Cam Sur) on Saturday early morning (Oct 29), between 4 to 6 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 3:  Over Camarines Norte on Saturday morning (Oct 29), between 7 to 9 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfalls 4 & 5:  Over Southern Polillo & Northern Quezon (Infanta Area) on Saturday afternoon (Oct 29), between 3 to 6 PM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Bicol Region & Visayas ~ Today.
• Rest of Luzon ~ Beginning tonight or early Saturday.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY MORNING: Intensifies into an STS as it makes landfall over Camarines Norte, after crossing Partido District, Camarines Sur and Southern Catanduanes…about 5 km E of Daet, Camarines Norte [8AM Oct 29: 14.1°N 123.0°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY EVENING: Weakens slightly as it makes landfall over Northern Quezon near Infanta, starts to cross Central Luzon via Bulacan…about 45 km NE of Meycauayan City, Bulacan [8PM Oct 29: 15.0°N 121.3°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY MORNING: Emerges over the coastal waters of Zambales after crossing Central Luzon and weakens further…about 104 km SW of Alaminos, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 30: 15.4°N 119.4°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• MONDAY MORNING: About to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it turns NW to NNW…about 236 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [8AM Oct 31: 17.1°N 118.0°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 510 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,470 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,120 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —