Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE) Advisory No. 06

24-hr Outlook: TS PAENG is forecast to continue moving west-northwest with an increased forward speed of 23 km/hr, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later tonight as it traverses the low-level terrain of Bicol Region. It is likely to make landfall over Albay early tomorrow morning, and then traverse Southern Cam Sur, passing over Rinconada District between 3 to 6 AM tomorrow. Then it will be in the vicinity of Pili-Minalabac-Pamplona Area, or about 10 km South of Naga City and 15 km ENE of Pasacao between 6-7 AM tomorrow.  By 2 PM tomorrow afternoon, the center of Paeng will be in the vicinity of Atimonan, Quezon, heading towards Metro Manila.

The storm’s rainbands and trough together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will continue to bring isolated to occasional rains & thunderstorms with gusty winds (30-60 kph) across Luzon, becoming more frequent and widespread across Bicol Region, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Visayas, MiMaRoPa, & Sulu Archipelago tonight & tomorrow.  The risk of floods and landslides is currently at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the coastal waters of Northeastern Samar (near 12.7°N 126.1°E)
• Distance 1:  160 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar
• Distance 2: 260 km east of Legazpi City, Albay
• Distance 3: 330 km east-southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Landfalls 1 & 2:  Over Rapu-Rapu & Cagraray Islands on Saturday early morning (Oct 29), between 1 to 2 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 3:  Over Bacacay-Malilipot-Tabaco-Malinao (Albay)  on Saturday early morning (Oct 29), between 2 to 3 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.
• Landfall 4:  Over Buenavista-Guinayangan (Quezon) on Saturday morning (Oct 29), between 10 to 11 AM ~ with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Bicol Region & Visayas ~ Today & Tomorrow.
• Rest of Luzon ~ Beginning Tonight or Early Saturday.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• None.

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Rapu-Rapu & Cagraray Islands as it moves WNW across Bicol, becomes an STS…about 25 km NE of Legazpi City, Albay [2AM Oct 29: 13.3°N 123.9°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Atimonan, Quezon…strengthens slightly as it crosses Southern Quezon towards Laguna and NCR…about 25 km E of Tayabas City, Quezon [2PM Oct 29: 14.0°N 121.9°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the coastal waters of Southern Zambales after passing over Subic Bay, weakens slightly…about 42 km W of Olongapo City, Zambales [2AM Oct 30: 14.9°N 119.9°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal or over the West Philippine Sea, weakens into a TS…about 209 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Oct 30: 15.4°N 118.2°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,440 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,120 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —