Tropical Depression OBET Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TD OBET is forecast to slowly intensify over the North Philippine Sea while moving west-southwest approaching the Batanes-Babuyan Group, with an increased forward speed of 24 km/hr.  It is likely to become a Tropical Storm (TS) upon its passage over the islands. 

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring occasional rains with severe thunderstorms, and gusty winds (15-65 kph) across Northern Luzon today and tomorrow. The risk of floods and landslides remain at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the western part of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.8°N 128.0°E)
• Distance 1:  625 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2: 664 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 701 km east-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan

• None.  However, possible minor landfalls are likely along the Batanes or Babuyan Group of Islands tomorrow evening through early Saturday morning (Oct 22), between 8 PM to 2 AM with High Strike Probability of 75 to 90%.

• Batanes & Babuyan Group, Northern Coastal Areas of Ilocos Norte & Northern Cagayan ~ beginning tomorrow morning until Saturday morning.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies slightly while moving faster WSW to West as it enters the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel, approaching the Babuyan Island Group…about 166 km SE of Basco, Batanes [2PM Oct 21: 19.6°N 123.3°E @ 55 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a TS as it exits the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a westerly track…about 269 km WNW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2PM Oct 22: 19.8°N 118.6°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Turns WSW across the South China Sea as it strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS)…about 413 km S of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 23: 18.7°N 113.7°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 125 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —