Tropical Depression OBET Advisory No. 01

24-hr Outlook: TD OBET is forecast to slowly intensify over the North Philippine Sea while moving west-southwest towards Batanes-Babuyan Group, with an increased forward speed of 24 km/hr. 

This cyclone will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring occasional rains with severe thunderstorms, and gusty winds (15-65 kph) across Northern Luzon today. The risk of floods and landslides is at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.9°N 129.0°E)
• Distance 1:  729 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2: 765 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 805 km east-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan

• None.  However, possible minor landfalls are likely along the Batanes or Babuyan Group of Islands tomorrow evening through early Saturday morning (Oct 22), between 8 PM to 2 AM with High Strike Probability of 70 to 85%.

• Batanes & Babuyan Group, Northern Coastal Areas of Ilocos Norte & Northern Cagayan ~ beginning tomorrow morning until Saturday morning.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY MORNING: Intensifies slightly while moving faster WSW as it enters the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel…about 271 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM Oct 21: 19.5°N 124.5°E @ 55 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY MORNING: Becomes a TS as it starting to depart the Babuyan-Batanes Group on a westerly track…about 87 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [8AM Oct 22: 19.2°N 120.3°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• SUNDAY MORNING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while gaining more strength over the South China Sea…begins to turn WSW-ward…about 445 km SSE of Hong Kong, China [8AM Oct 23: 18.9°N 116.2°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 120 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (380 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —