Tropical Disturbance (LPA) OBET StormWatch No. 01

An elongated area of low pressure is slowly developing over the North Philippine Sea and could pose a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon this weekend.  This LPA is now named locally by PAGASA as “OBET” which they considered it already as a Tropical Depression (TD).  

This disturbance is not yet affecting any part of the country and will be closely monitored for possible development into a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next couple of days.

• Location of Center: Along the central part of the North Philippine Sea (near 21.2°N 131.5°E)
• Distance 1: 991 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2: 1,068 km east-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 1,024  km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan

• Global Typhoon Models are showing little development on this disturbance through the next 24 to 48 hours as it moves west-southwest.
• The 3 to 4 Day Forecast shows the disturbance becoming a  45-kph Tropical Depression as it traverses Luzon Strain or along Batanes-Babuyan Islands on Friday evening (Oct 21) through Saturday morning (Oct 22), as it is being push by the strong surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan).  However, this forecast is currently at LOW confidence (<35% chance).
• No direct effects will be expected from this storm through the next 24 hours.
• This system will be closely monitored for any abrupt changes in its circulation.

Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.