Tropical Depression OBET Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: TD OBET is forecast to continue intensifying upon its passage over the Bashi Channel and could become a Tropical Storm (TS) tonight. It will continue moving westward, with a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr, and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday noontime. 

The cyclone’s rainbands together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) will bring occasional rains with severe thunderstorms, and gusty winds (15-55 kph) across Extreme Northern Luzon today. The risk of floods and landslides remain at medium to high. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the eastern edge of the Bashi Channel (near 20.3°N 124.6°E)
• Distance 1:  271 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2: 327 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 345 km east-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan

• None.  However, possible minor landfalls are likely along the Batanes or Babuyan Group of Islands late this afternoon through early Saturday morning (Oct 22), between 5 PM to 2 AM with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Batanes & Babuyan Group, Northern Coastal Areas of Ilocos Norte & Northern Cagayan ~ Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Tropical Storm (TS) while moving West away from the Batanes-Babuyan Group…about to exit the western border of the PAR…some 119 km NW of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2AM Oct 22: 20.2°N 120.8°E @ 65 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it begins tracking WSW across the South China Sea…about 355 km SE of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 23: 19.8°N 116.1°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Nears Typhoon strength as it maintains its WSW track approaching the eastern coastal waters of Hainan Island…about 534 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 24: 17.9°N 112.3°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 280 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (360 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —