Super Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) Advisory No. 08

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to turn northward to north-northeastward for the next 24 hours and will weaken to below STY classification (Category 4). The core (eye & eyewall) of this super typhoon will pass over or very close to Lanyu Island (Taiwan) late tonight, and will be over the coastal waters of Eastern Taiwan by early tomorrow morning. Stormy weather will prevail across Extreme Northern Luzon this afternoon through the evening.

Meanwhile, the presence of this tropical cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon Rains (Habagat) across Luzon including Occidental Mindoro, Romblon, Marinduque, Kalayaan Island Group, and Palawan this weekend.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the western coast of Itbayat Island, Batanes (near 20.7°N 121.7°E)
• Distance 1: 17 km west-southwest of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 2: 38 km northwest of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 3: 177 km southeast of Hengchun, Taiwan

• None.

• Northern Cagayan – continuing through the afternoon.
• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – continuing through the afternoon.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes Island Group – continuing this afternoon.

• Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – continuing until tonight. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY MORNING: Moving north to NNE. along the coastal waters of Eastern Taiwan…weakens to a Category 4 TY…about 299 km N of Basco, Batanes [8AM Sept 12: 23.2°N 122.1°E @ 215 kph]. Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• MONDAY MORNING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it rapidly accelerates northward across the East China Sea, bearing down the coastal waters of Zhejiang Province, China…will be downgraded into a Category 2 TY…about 150 km E of Wenling, China [8AM Sept 13: 28.2°N 122.9°E @ 160 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 520 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 915 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (465 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (600 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 195 km outward from the center