Super Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) Advisory No. 07

24-hr Outlook: STY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to turn northward to north-northeastward for the next 24 hours and will weaken to just below STY classification. The core (eye & eyewall) of this catastrophic super typhoon will pass over or very close to Itbayat, Batanes between 1 to 3 PM this afternoon, and will be over the coastal waters of Southeastern Taiwan or just east of Lanyu Island, Taiwan by early tomorrow morning. Stormy weather will prevail across Extreme Northern Luzon through early tomorrow morning.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southern coastal waters of Sabtang and Batan Islands (near 20.1°N 122.0°E)
• Distance 1: 44 km south of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2: 76 km south-southeast of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 3: 548 km south of Taipei, Taiwan

• “Islandfall” is expected along SABTANG-BATAN ISLANDS (Batanes) between 8 to 10 AM this morning – with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Northern Cagayan – now occurring.
• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – now occurring.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Coastal Areas of Northern Cagayan – now occurring.
• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – now occurring.

• Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – now occurring. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns north to NNE as it moves along the coastal waters of Eastern Taiwan…weakens to a Category 4 TY…about 188 km N of Basco, Batanes [2AM Sept 12: 22.2°N 122.0°E @ 220 kph]. Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly accelerates northward across the East China Sea while weakening to a Category 2 TY…already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 253 km ESE of Wenzhou, China [2AM Sept 13: 27.0°N 123.0°E @ 175 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 510 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 905 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (465 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (445 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 155 km outward from the center