Typhoon KIKO (CHANTHU) Advisory No. 09

24-hr Outlook: TY KIKO (CHANTHU) is forecast to accelerate slightly northward to north-northeastward for the next 24 hours, weakening to a Category 3 Typhoon. The decaying core (eye & eyewall) of this powerful typhoon will pass over or very close to Lanyu Island (Taiwan) tonight or  early tomorrow morning, and will be over the coastal waters of Northeastern Taiwan tomorrow afternoon.

Meanwhile, the presence of this tropical cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon Rains (Habagat) across Northern & Central Luzon including Occidental Mindoro, Panay, Romblon, Marinduque, Kalayaan Island Group, and Palawan this weekend.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern part of the Bashi Channel (near 21.3°N 121.8°E)
• Distance 1: 57 km north of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 2: 91 km north-northwest of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 3: 138 km southeast of Hengchun, Taiwan

• None.

• Batanes & Babuyan Island Group – still prevailing until tonight.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes Island Group – still prevailing until tonight.

• Coastal Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon – still prevailing until tonight. 

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Moving north to NNE. along the coastal waters of Northeastern Taiwan as it is about to leave the northern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens to a Category 3 TY…about 422 km N of Basco, Batanes [2PM Sept 12: 24.3°N 122.4°E @ 205 kph]. Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Making landfall along the shoreline of Zhejiang Province, China...weakens into a Category 2 TY…about 73 km E of Ningbo, China [2PM Sept 13: 29.8°N 122.3°E @ 165 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 915 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (625 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (555 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 230 km outward from the center