Super Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Final Advisory

36-hr Outlook: STY GORING is forecast to weaken just below Super Typhoon threshold as it approaches the coastal waters of Guangdong, China by tomorrow Friday morning. Then, on Friday evening, depending on the forecast track fluctuations, GORING is forecast to either (1) make landfall over or near Hong Kong or, (2) will just remain over water, passing along the offshore areas of the Chinese metropolis. The forecast confidence of this outlook is currently at MEDIUM.

The presence of TY GORING will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Western Luzon today.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms with gusty winds will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over northern portion of the South China Sea (near 21.0°N 118.2°E)
• Distance 1:  380 km west of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 2:  385 km south of Xiamen, China
• Distance 3:  440 km east-southeast of Hong Kong, China

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY MORNING: Already outside of the PAR while maintaining its WNW-ward track across the northern part of the South China Sea…no longer a Super Typhoon…about 255 km E of Hong Kong, China [8AM Sept 01: 22.4°N 116.6°E @ 220-270 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY MORNING: In the vicinity of Zhongshan, China after making landfall over Eastern Guangdong…weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon..about 85 km WNW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Sept 02: 22.6°N 113.3°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 700 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (530 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  95 km outward from the center.