Super Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Advisory No. 14

48-hr Outlook: STY GORING is forecast to slightly weaken through the next 48 hours, as it moves towards the coastal waters of Guangdong, China. By Friday afternoon (Sept 01), GORING is forecast to be in the vicinity of the coastal waters of Eastern Guangdong.

The presence of TY GORING will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Western Luzon this week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms with gusty winds will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over western portion of the Bashi Channel (near 20.5°N 120.0°E)
• Distance 1:  195 km west of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 2:  240 km south of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
• Distance 3:  670 km north of Metro Manila, NCR

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of the PAR while maintaining its WNW-ward track across the northern part of the South China Sea…no longer a Super Typhoon…about 290 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2PM Aug 31: 21.3°N 117.9°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Bears down the coastal waters of Guangdong Province while weakening over the South China Sea…about 185 km E of Hong Kong, China [2PM Sept 01: 22.3°N 115.9°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (575 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  95 km outward from the center.