Super Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Advisory No. 13

48-hr Outlook: STY GORING is forecast to slightly weaken within the next 24 hours, as the system exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on a west-northwest track later tonight. By early Thursday morning (Sept 01), GORING is forecast to weaken just below Super Typhoon strength as it starts to move westward closer to the coastal waters of Hong Kong.

The presence of TY GORING will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Western Luzon this week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms with gusty winds will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Luzon Strait (near 20.0°N 121.4°E)
• Distance 1:  75 km north of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  80 km southwest of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 3:  605 km north of Metro Manila, NCR

• None

• Babuyan & Batanes Island Group, Ilocos Norte ~ This Morning.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes & Western Portions of Babuyan Islands ~ This Morning.

• Onshore and beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the PAR while moving WNW-ward across the northern part of the South China Sea, weakens slightly…about 240 km SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2AM Aug 31: 20.9°N 118.9°E @ 240-300 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to just below Super Typhoon strength as it turns westward while approaching the coastal waters of Guangdong Province (China)…about 270 km E of Hong Kong, China [2AM Sept 01: 22.0°N 116.7°E @ 220-270 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon, as it bears down the offshore areas of Hong Kong on a westerly track…about 80 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Sept 02: 21.8°N 113.7°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (450 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  95 km outward from the center.