Tropical Depression FLORITA Advisory No. 01

24-hr Outlook: TD FLORITA is forecast to attain Tropical Storm (TS) Classification and will move slowly westward at 08 km/hr. Its displaced western rainbands will start to affect the eastern sections of Cagayan Valley including Northern Aurora  beginning tomorrow afternoon (Aug 22).

Its trough or extension will bring rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, Quezon, Marinduque and the Rest of Aurora today through tomorrow afternoon.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 17.0°N 126.7°E)
• Distance 1: 458 km east of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2: 499 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3: 509 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan

• Along Northern Cagayan – between 7-9 PM Tuesday (Aug 24) with Medium Strike Probability of 60-65%.

• Northern Aurora, Eastern Isabela, Northern & Eastern Cagayan – between 5 PM today to 5 PM tomorrow (Aug 22).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a TS while moving slowly westward across the northern portion of the Central Philippine Sea…about 288 km East of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Aug 22: 16.8°N 125.1°E @ 65 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan as it intensifies slightly…about 123 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM Aug 23: 18.0°N 123.2°E @ 75 kph]. It will traverse Northern Cagayan-Babuyan Group-Northern Ilocos Norte Area beginning Tuesday evening through Wednesday early morning (Aug 23-24).   Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it strengthens further while heading towards Southern China…about 162 km NNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM Aug 24: 19.5°N 119.9°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (730 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —