Tropical Storm ULYSSES (VAMCO) Advisory No. 03

Meanwhile, residents of Bicol Region must closely monitor and pay attention on the progress of this potential howler for possible changes in its track as it is still expected to bring strong winds with intense rainfall during its close passage on Wednesday afternoon through the evening.

24-hr Outlook: TS ULYSSES (VAMCO) is forecast to turn west-northwestward at a decreased forward speed of 15 km/hr, and could become a Severe Tropical Storm (TS) later today. It is therefore expected move closer to the offshore areas of Catanduanes by early Wednesday morning.

• Location of Center: Over the Middle Part of Central Philippine Sea
• Coordinates: 13.4°N lat  129.1°E lon
• Distance 1: 531 km east of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 586 km east of Legazpi City, Albay
• Distance 3: 639 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Over Polillo Island Group (Northern Quezon), between 2 to 4 AM Thursday, Nov 12 – with High Strike Probability of 65-75%.

• BICOL REGION, NORTHERN SAMAR, QUEZON – beginning Wednesday afternoon (Nov 11).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• CAMARINES NORTE, NORTHEASTERN CAMARINES SUR (PARTIDO DISTRICT), NORTHERN CATANDUANES – beginning Wednesday afternoon (Nov 11).

• Coastal, Bays, & Lake Areas of Northern Samar, Bicol & Quezon Provinces – beginning Wednesday (Nov 11).

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Reaches STS status while over the Central Philippine Sea, approaching the offshore areas of Catanduanes…about 255 km ENE of Bato, Catanduanes [2AM Nov 11: 14.5°N 126.5°E @ 100 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly intensifies into a Category 3 Typhoon (TY) and makes landfall over Polillo Island Group, moving West towards Central Luzon including Metropolitan Manila…about 51 km ENE of Infanta, Quezon [2AM Nov 12: 14.9°N 122.1°E @ 195 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerating westward across the West Philippine Sea as it is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon while passing near Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal…about 364 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [2AM Nov 13: 15.0°N 116.8°E @ 140 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (910 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center