Severe Tropical Storm ROSAL (PAKHAR) StormWatch No. 02

Tropical Depression ROSAL (PAKHAR) has rapidly intensified into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it accelerates east-northeast across the North Philippine Sea.  This system has already reached its peak intensity, and for the next couple of days a sharp weakening trend is expected with complete dissipation on Wednesday or Thursday (Dec. 14-15) as the storm turns south to southwestward.

STS ROSAL’s circulation remains over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea with no direct effect to any part of the country. However, it will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) and bring cloudy skies with isolated to scattered rain showers across Extreme Northern Luzon particularly Cagayan Valley.

• Location of Center: Along the southern portion of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.0°N 129.6°E)
• Distance 1: 795 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2: 800 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 830 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela

• Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) now showing a rapid weakening phase within 24 to 48 hours as the system encounters increased upper level winds (i.e. Wind Shear), decreased sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and cold-dry air entrainment from the surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan).  This monsoon surge will push ROSAL on a SW to WSW track across the North and Central Philippine Sea until its demise.
• Complete dissipation of this system is forecast on or before Thursday, Dec 15.
• No direct effect will be expected from this cyclone.

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