Typhoon ROLLY (GONI) Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: TY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to continue intensifying rapidly becoming a Category 5 Super Typhoon (260 km/hr) by early tomorrow morning as it begins to slide west to west-southwestward with a forward speed of 15 km/hr across the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea. 

• Location: Along the norheastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.3°N 133.0°E)
• Distance 1: 993 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 1,165 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  1,073 km east-northeast of Siruma, Camarines Sur

• Along Southern Aurora-Northern Quezon Area, between 9 to 11 PM Sunday, Nov 01 – with High Strike Probability of 70-80%.

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly strengthens into a Category 5-Super Typhoon as it moves west to west-southwestward across the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea…about 644 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Oct 31: 16.0°N 129.8°E @ 260 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH 
• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 4 Major Typhoon  while sliding WSW-ward, towards the offshore areas of Northern Bicol…about 167 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM Nov 01: 14.6°N 125.6°E @ 230 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Over Zambales Mountains as it weakens gradually into a Category 2 Typhoon after crossing Central Luzon. Begins to move W to WNW towards West Philippine Sea…about 43 km W of Tarlac City, Tarlac [2AM Nov 02: 15.5°N 120.2°E @ 175 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 450 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 943 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (445 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 50 km from the center