Typhoon ROLLY (GONI) Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: TY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to continue intensifying rapidly becoming a Category 3 Typhoon (195 km/hr) by tomorrow afternoon as it maintains its westerly track with a forward speed of 18 km/hr across the northeastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea. 

• Location: Over the PAR line (near 16.8°N 135.1°E)
• Distance 1: 11 km east of Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
• Distance 2: 1,389 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  1,223 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes

• Along the Aurora-Quezon Border, between 2 to 4 AM Monday, Nov 02 – with Medium Strike Probability of 50%.

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly strengthens into a Category 3-Major Typhoon as it moves westward across the northeastern portion of the Central Philippine Sea…about 843 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 30: 16.5°N 131.6°E @ 195 kph].  Confidence Level: HIGH 
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches Super Typhoon classification (Category 4) while sliding WNW-ward, towards the offshore areas of Northern Bicol…about 521 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 31: 15.4°N 128.8°E @ 240 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Category 4 Major Typhoon as it near the coastal areas of Northern Bicol. Begins to move W to WNW towards Central Luzon…about 93 km NNW of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Nov 01: 14.8°N 123.8°E @ 230 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (365 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 75 km from the center