TYPHOON QUINTA (MOLAVE) ADVISORY NO. 06Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 25 October 2020
Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Monday, 26 October 2020 |
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| Current Status and Outlook | QUINTA (MOLAVE) is now a well-developed Typhoon (TY) as it continues to rapidly intensify during the past 6 hours…now passing very close to Southern Catanduanes, with the northern part of the “Eye” brushing the Town of Virac. Additional strengthening is likely as the system moves over the warm waters of Lagonoy Gulf. Landfall is expected along Rapu-Rapu-Tabaco-Tiwi Area (Albay) between 6 to 7 PM tonight.
24-hr Outlook: TY QUINTA (MOLAVE) is forecast to traverse the Northern Albay-Southern Camarines Sur Area this evening, and will be in the vicinity of Buhi-Iriga City-Bula Area between 7-9 PM tonight…emerging over Balatan-Pasacao Coastal Areas between 9-10 PM. It will continue moving westward @ 25 km/hr, and shall be in the vicinity of Marinduque around 2AM tomorrow morning (Oct 26). Quinta is forecast to emerge along the western coast of Occidental Mindoro around 2PM tomorrow afternoon, after traversing the northern part of Oriental Mindoro. |
| Where is QUINTA (MOLAVE)? | As of 5:00 PM PhT today, October 25…0900 GMT. The center was located along the Southern Coast of Catanduanes, approaching Lagonoy Gulf (near 13.4°N 124.2°E), about 21 km south of Virac, Catanduanes or 115 km east-southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur. |
| How strong is it? | Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 130 kph near the center…Gustiness: 160 kph. |
| Past Movement (06 hrs) | West @ 25 kph, towards Northern Albay-Southern Camarines Sur Area |
| Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) | :: Landfall 1: Along Rapu-Rapu Island-Bacacay-Tabaco Area (Albay), between 6-7 PM Tonight – with High Strike Probability of 100%.
:: Landfall 2: Over Southern Bondoc Peninsula (Quezon), between 12-1 AM Tomorrow, Monday Morning – with High Strike Probability of 90%. :: Landfall 3: Over Marinduque, between 2-3 AM Tomorrow, Monday Morning – with High Strike Probability of 90%. |
| What Philippine areas will be directly affected? | Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs): >> Bicol Region, Eastern & Northern Samar – tonight until tomorrow, Monday morning (Oct 26). >> Calabarzon, Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon – beginning tonight until tomorrow, Monday afternoon (Oct 26). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): |
| Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ | :: Coastal Areas of Bicol Region, Masbate, Ticao-Burias Islands, Bondoc Peninsula & Northern Samar – Tonight.
+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates for more details. |
| 3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** | MONDAY AFTERNOON: emerging along the west coast of Occidental Mindoro as it maintains its typhoon classification…turns WNW…about 155 km NNW of Coron, Palawan [2PM Oct 26: 13.3°N 119.6°E @ 120 kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…intensifies further as it moves WNW…about 648 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Oct 27: 14.2°N 114.3°E @ 150 kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to make landfall over Vietnam…about 945 km SW of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 28: 15.4°N 109.0°E @ 150 kph]. Confidence Level: LOW **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. |
| Other Storm’s Meteorological Info | > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Intense]
> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 820 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 60 km from the center. |
| Current Summary/Additional Reference Points | Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun October 25, 2020 Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.4°N Lat 124.2°E Lon Distance 1: 53 km NE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon Distance 2: 57 km E of Legazpi City, Albay Distance 3: 86 km E of Iriga City, Camarines Sur Distance 4: 58 km E of Tiwi, Albay Distance 5: 363 km ESE of Metro Manila |
| Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information. | |
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)
PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.
