TROPICAL STORM QUINTA (MOLAVE) ADVISORY NO. 04Issued at: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday, 25 October 2020
Next update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Sunday, 25 October 2020 |
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| Current Status and Outlook | QUINTA (MOLAVE) rapidly intensifies into a 75-km/hr Tropical Storm (TS) as it accelerates westward towards the Bicol Region…likely to become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) on or before it makes landfall over Catanduanes late this afternoon or early evening.
24-hr Outlook: TS QUINTA (MOLAVE) is forecast to gain more strength before traversing the Bicol Peninsula, and will continue moving westward @ 24 km/hr. The center is expected to pass over the Southern tip of Catanduanes during or after Sunset today & traverse Southern Camarines Sur-Northern Albay Area tonight, emerging over the Ragay Gulf-Bondoc Peninsula Area by early tomorrow morning (Oct 26). |
| Where is QUINTA (MOLAVE)? | As of 5:00 AM PhT today, October 25…2100 GMT. The center was located along the mid-western portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 13.5°N 127.1°E), about 316 km east of Virac, Catanduanes or 422 km east of Naga City, Camarines Sur. |
| How strong is it? | Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center…Gustiness: 95 kph. |
| Past Movement (06 hrs) | West @ 24 kph, towards the Bicol Region |
| Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) | :: Landfall 1: Along the Southern Coast of Catanduanes, between 5-7 PM Today – with High Strike Probability of 85%.
:: Landfall 2: Over Northeastern Albay (along Tiwi-Tabaco-Bagacay-Cagraray Is. Area), between 7-9 PM Today – with High Strike Probability of 80%. |
| What Philippine areas will be directly affected? | Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs): >> Bicol Region, Eastern & Northern Samar – beginning today until tomorrow, Monday morning (Oct 26). >> Calabarzon, Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon – beginning tonight until tomorrow, Monday afternoon (Oct 26). Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): |
| Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ | :: None.
+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates for more details. |
| 3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** | MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Over the northern part of Sibuyan Sea or off the southwestern coast of Bondoc Point (Quezon), after crossing Bicol Region…strengthens into a STS as it turns WSW to Westward approaching Southern Marinduque-Mindoro Area…about 38 km WSW of San Andres, Burias Island [2AM Oct 26: 13.2°N 122.4°E @ 110 kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea after traversing Marinduque & Mindoro…intensifies into a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) as it moves W to WNW…about 366 km WNW of Coron, Palawan [2AM Oct 27: 13.4°N 117.1°E @ 130 kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY)…traversing the South China Sea on a WNW track, approaching Vietnam…about 916 km WNW of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan [2AM Oct 28: 14.1°N 111.5°E @ 140 kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. |
| Other Storm’s Meteorological Info | > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 300 mm [Light to Intense]
> Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 410 km (Very Small/Midget) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None. |
| Current Summary/Additional Reference Points | Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun October 25, 2020 Location of Center/Eye: Near 13.5°N Lat 127.1°E Lon Distance 1: 354 km E of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon Distance 2: 365 km E of Legazpi City, Albay Distance 3: 410 km E of Iriga City, Camarines Sur Distance 4: 458 km ESE of Daet, Camarines Norte Distance 5: 662 km E of Metro Manila |
| Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information. | |
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)
PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL
Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.
