SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PEPITO (SAUDEL) ADVISORY NO. 10Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday, 21 October 2020
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday, 22 October 2020 |
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| Current Status and Outlook | PEPITO (SAUDEL) becomes a Severe Tropical Storm as it slows down while over the West Philippine Sea…expected to exit the western border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning or afternoon (Oct 22).
24-hr Outlook: TS PEPITO (SAUDEL) is forecast to move slowly northwestward at 08 kph for the next 24 hours and will continue to gain strength, reaching 100 km/hr by tomorrow afternoon. The combination of Pepito’s Rainbands, its Trough and the Enhanced Southwesterly Surface Windflow – will bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across Western Luzon and MiMaRoPa today. |
| Where is PEPITO (SAUDEL)? | As of 5:00 PM PhT Today, October 21…0900 GMT. The center was located over the West Philippine Sea, just north of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal (near 16.3°N 117.7°E), about 245 km west of Alaminos City, Pangasinan or 283 km west of Dagupan City, Pangasinan. |
| How strong is it? | Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center…Gustiness: 120 kph. |
| Past Movement (06 hrs) | West-Southwest @ 11 kph, towards the South China Sea. |
| Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s) | :: None |
| What Philippine areas will be directly affected? | Heavy to Extreme Rains (50 mm to >100 mm expected in 24 hrs): >> None. Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected): |
| Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+ | :: None.
+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates for more details. |
| 3-Day Forecast Outlook Summary** | THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further as it moves slowly, northwestward…already outside of PAR…about 403 km WNW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Oct 22: 17.3°N 116.4°E @ 100 kph]. Confidence Level: HIGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify while over the South China Sea while moving west…about 522 km S of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 23: 17.7°N 114.1°E @ 110 kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strengthens as it accelerates westward towards Hainan-Northern Vietnam Area…about 637 km SW of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 24: 18.0°N 110.2°E @ 110 kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM **Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time. |
| Other Storm’s Meteorological Info | > 24 hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
> Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa) > Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 790 km (Medium) > Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 55 km from the center. |
| Current Summary/Additional Reference Points | Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed October 21, 2020 Location of Center/Eye: Near 16.3°N Lat 117.7°E Lon Distance 1: 309 km W of Urdaneta City, Pangasinan Distance 2: 319 km WSW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur Distance 3: 323 km W of Tarlac City, Tarlac Distance 4: 335 km WNW of Angeles City, Pampanga Distance 5: 408 km WNW of Metro Manila |
| Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information. | |
Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)
PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS
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Screenshot/Image Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.
