Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to slow down while maintaining its westerly course at a speed of 20 km/hr, becoming a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) later today. The core of TS MARING is expected to traverse Luzon Strait tonight, passing along the Babuyan Islands (between 6 to 11 PM), and will emerge along the northern portion of the West Philippine Sea. 

The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao today through tomorrow (Oct 12). The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the easternmost part of the Balintang Channel (near 18.8°N 124.4°E)
• Distance 1: 239 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 295 km east of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 589 km northeast of Metro Manila

• No major landfall expected…just minor landfalls, along the Babuyan Islands between 6-11 PM tonight (Oct 11).

• Northern Luzon – Today until Tomorrow (Oct 12).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Southern Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Northern Cagayan – beginning this afternoon until early tomorrow morning (Oct 12).

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Nearing Typhoon classification as it quickly traverse Luzon Strait, emerging along the northern part of the West Philippine Sea…about 64 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM Oct 12: 19.0°N 120.4°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…maintains its fast, westerly track across the northern part of the South China Sea…about 400 km S of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 13: 18.8°N 114.2°E @ 130 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the Gulf of Tonkin after making landfall over Southern Hainan (China)…weakens into an STS…about 772 km WSW of Hong Kong, China [2AM Oct 14: 18.6°N 107.9°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,670 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,800 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None