Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) Advisory No. 01

24-hr Outlook: TS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to turn sharply westward and traverse the Babuyan Islands later tonight between 6 to 11 PM with a forward speed of 21 km/hr, with winds increasing to Severe Tropical Storm (STS) classification…about 100 to 110 kph with higher gusts.

The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao. The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southwesternmost portion of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.6°N 126.0°E)
• Distance 1: 405 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 483 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 691 km northeast of Metro Manila

• No major landfall expected…just minor landfalls, along the Babuyan Islands between 6-11 PM tonight (Oct 11).

• Northern Luzon – Today until Tomorrow (Oct 12).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands, Northern Cagayan – beginning this afternoon until early tomorrow morning (Oct 12).

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY EVENING: Becomes an STS as it quickly traverse Luzon Strait, passing over the Babuyan Islands, turns Westward sharply…about 43 km SE of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8PM Oct 11: 19.1°N 121.8°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• TUESDAY EVENING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon (TY) while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…maintains its fast, westerly track across the northern part of the South China Sea…about 423 km SSE of Hong Kong, China [8PM Oct 12: 18.9N 115.7°E @ 120 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY EVENING: Weakens into an STS as it makes landfall over the southern part of Hainan Island (China)…about 678 km SW of Hong Kong, China [8PM Oct 13: 18.4N 109.2°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,840 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,800 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None