Typhoon KARDING (NORU) Advisory No. 06

24-hr Outlook: TY KARDING is forecast to continue intensifying, and will turn westward at a forward speed of 21 km/hr. Its outer rainbands will start to affect Northern Quezon, Aurora, and the northern portions of Bicol Region beginning early tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon, the core of the typhoon will pass along the coastal waters of Polillo Island Group, and could make landfall somewhere along Baler and Dingalan, Aurora.

Meanwhile, this storm will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Southern Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas and Western Mindanao beginning tomorrow through Monday (Sept 26).

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 15.6°N 126.4°E)
• Distance 1: 297 km northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 518 km east of Baler, Aurora
• Distance 3: 593 km east-northeast of Metro Manila

• Somewhere along the Towns of Baler & Dingalan (Aurora) – between 5 to 6 PM tomorrow, Sunday (Sept 25) with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Central Luzon & the Southern Portions of Northern Luzon – beginning 2PM tomorrow to 2AM Monday, (Sept 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Aurora & Northern Part of Northern Quezon incl. Polillo Islands – beginning 2PM tomorrow to 2AM Monday (Sept 26).

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Northern Bicol, Aurora, Northern Quezon, & Isabela.

+Waves of 2 to 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a 150 kph (Cat 1) Typhoon while moving westward across the coastal waters of Polillo Island Group, approaching the coastal waters of Northern Quezon & Aurora…about 152 km NNE of Daet, Camarines Norte [2PM Sept 25: 15.3°N 122.2°E @ 150 kph]. Later on, the eye is forecast to make landfall over Southern Aurora, somewhere along Baler-Dingalan, Aurora late in the afternoon. Then in the evening it will cross Central Luzon (passing along the provinces of Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pangasinan, and Northern Zambales).  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM 
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Western Pangasinan-Northern Zambales Border…weakens into an STS after traversing the landmass of Central Luzon…about 28 km S of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 26: 15.9°N 120.0°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW 
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Regains Typhoon Classification as it moves westward across the West Philippine Sea, as it is about to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 341 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Sept 26: 16.0°N 116.8°E @ 120 kph].   Forecast Confidence: LOW
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of PAR as it accelerates westward across the South China Sea, approaching the coastal waters of Vietnam, becomes a Category 2 Typhoon…about 804 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2PM Sept 27: 15.6°N 111.5°E @ 165 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 320 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (445 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (500 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  45 km outward from the center