Severe Tropical Storm JOLINA (CONSON) Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: STS JOLINA (CONSON) is forecast to become a Typhoon later this afternoon and move northwestward at a forward speed of 20 km/hr and will be in the vicinity of Ticao Island at around 2 PM. By this evening through early tomorrow morning, JOLINA will traverse Ragay Gulf, passing very near the western coastal areas of Camarines Sur.

Meanwhile, TD 19W becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves northwestward across the Pacific Ocean. At 5 AM today, it was located about 1,662 km East of Central Luzon (15.5N 137.1E), with 1-min sustained winds of 85 kph. This system is not yet a threat to any part of the country as it is forecast to move towards Taiwan within the next 5 days. It is then forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday morning (Sept 08).

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the Island Municipalities of Samar Province (near 11.8°N 124.5°E)
• Distance 1: 31 km south-southwest of Calbayog City, Samar
• Distance 2: 120 km southeast of Masbate City, Masbate
• Distance 3: 244 km southeast of Naga City, Camarines Sur

• Along Ticao Island – this afternoon between 2-4 PM, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Eastern Visayas & Bicol Region – Today.
• Southern Quezon – Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Ticao Island, Eastern Masbate, Burias Island & the rest of the Western Coastal Areas of Bicol Region (facing Ragay Gulf) – Today through tomorrow morning.

• Coastal Areas of Western Bicol (facing Ragay Gulf)

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Northern Burias Coastline as it tracks NW across Northern Ragay Gulf…about 40 km SSW of Naga City, Camarines Sur [2AM Sept 08: 13.3°N 123.0°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
  
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens further while making landfall over Central Luzon…in the vicinity of Nueva Ecija-Pampanga Area…about 91 km NNW of Metro Manila [2AM Sept 09: 15.3°N 120.8°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerates WNW-ward across the West Philippine Sea, as it exits PAR while re-intensifying…about 418 km WNW of Dagupan City, Pangasinan [2AM Sept 10: 16.9°N 116.5°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (590 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (330 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 35 km outward from the center.