Tropical Storm JENNY (KOINU) Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: TS JENNY is forecast to move in a northwesterly direction across the North Philippine Sea for the next 2 days while intensifying into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by tomorrow morning, and as a Typhoon on Monday (Oct 02). During this outlook, JENNY is still far away from affecting any part of the country.

Meanwhile, the presence of TD JENNY’s Trough (aka. Extension) and the weakening Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will bring isolated to scattered to at times occasional rain showers and severe thunderstorms across Central & Southern Luzon incl. NCR and Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Western Mindanao beginning today through early next week. It will be more frequent during the afternoon or evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against flash floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern portion of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.4°N 130.8°E)
• Distance 1:  760 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  930 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  1,065 km east-northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EVENING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while moving NW across the southernmost portion of the North Philippine Sea…about 680 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [8PM Oct 01: 18.3°N 128.7°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY EVENING: Rapidly intensifies into a Typhoon (TY) while over the SW portion of the North Philippine Sea, starts to move on a WNW track…about 505 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM Oct 02: 19.7°N 126.8°E @ 150-185 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• TUESDAY EVENING: Approaching Category 3 status as it undergoes a Rapid Intensification Phase while entering the eastern portion of the Bashi Channel on a westward track…about 280 km E of Basco, Batanes [8PM Oct 03: 20.6°N 124.7°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  996 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (745 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (550 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.