Tropical Storm FLORITA (MA-ON) Advisory No. 03

24-hr Outlook: TS FLORITA (MA-ON) could become a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) before it makes landfall and will move on a northwesterly track traversing Eastern Isabela and Cagayan tomorrow morning through the afternoon. Its rainbands could bring heavy to extreme rainfall across much of Northern Luzon and some portions of Central Luzon during the next 24 to 36 hours. Life-threatening flash floods and landslides are likely to occur during the storm’s passage. Please take all necessary precautions.

Meanwhile, its trough or extension together with the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring scattered to occasional rains with severe thunderstorms across the Whole of Luzon including Metropolitan Manila, MiMaRoPa, Visayas, & Western Mindanao today through tomorrow (Aug 23). Risk of flooding and landslides will be Medium to High.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.2°N 123.5°E)
• Distance 1: 147 km southeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2: 150 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3: 245 km southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan

• Along Eastern Isabela-Northern Cagayan Area – between 2 to 8 AM early tomorrow, Tuesday (Aug 23) with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Northern Luzon – between 8 PM today to 8 PM tomorrow, Tuesday (Aug 23).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Piat, Cagayan as it weakens slightly while traversing Cagayan. Moving on a northwesterly track towards Kalinga and Ilocos Norte…about 32 km NW of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [2PM Aug 23: 17.8°N 121.5°E @ 85 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Re-intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it exits the NW Border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 335 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM Aug 24: 19.8°N 117.9°E @ 100 kph].    Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Guangdong Province (Southern China), weakens into a TS…about 156 km West of Hong Kong, China [2PM Aug 25: 22.5°N 112.6°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (1,020 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (611 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —