Typhoon EGAY (DOKSURI) Advisory No. 09

48-hr Outlook: TY EGAY (DOKSURI) is expected to leave the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning.  Fluctuations in the wind speeds of  TY EGAY is forecast to occur as it accelerates towards the coastal waters of Southeastern China. The core of EGAY is forecast to make landfall over Fujian Province on Friday morning (Jul 28), and will start to rapidly decay as it moves further into the rugged terrain of Southeastern China. 

The presence of TY EGAY (DOKSURI) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon tonight through tomorrow (July 27).  Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected across these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the western portion of the Balintang Channel in Luzon Strait (near 19.4°N 120.7°E)
• Distance 1:  80 km west of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  135 km north of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
• Distance 3:  155 km northwest of Aparri, Cagayan

• None.

• Cagayan Valley (incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group) – Ongoing until Tomorrow.
• Northern Luzon – Ongoing until Tomorrow.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Northwestern Cagayan including Western Babuyan Island Group, Ilocos Norte, & Northern Apayao – Ongoing.

• Inland Lakes, Coastal and Beachfront areas of Northwestern Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 2 to more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…maintains its Category 3 status, moves NW to NNW…about 180 km SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2PM Jul 27: 21.4°N 119.2°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Moving over land across Fujian Province, China…weakens rapidly into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it accelerates NNW-ward…about 165 km NNW of Xiamen, China [2PM Jul 28: 25.7°N 117.2°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Large (1,355 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,300 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 195 km outward from the center.