Typhoon EGAY (DOKSURI) Advisory No. 06

48-hr Outlook: TY EGAY (DOKSURI) is expected to continue weakening as it crosses the Balintang Channel tonight until tomorrow morning. Its forecast track will bring the core (eye & eyewall) of EGAY over Dalupiri and Calayan Islands early tomorrow morning, between 5-8 AM. Then, at approximately 8 PM tomorrow, the core will moving away from the Babuyan Group, passing across the westernmost part of the Bashi Channel, and will be out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday morning (Jul 27). 

The presence of TY EGAY (DOKSURI) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon tonight through Thursday (July 27).  Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected across these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the central part of the Balintang Channel (near 18.9°N 122.3°E)
• Distance 1:  50 km north-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  90 km northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  160 km east-northeast of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte

• Over Babuyan Group of Islands late tonight, between 10 PM to 12 AM ~ with Very High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Cagayan Valley (incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group) – Tonight until Tomorrow or Thursday (Jul 26-27).
• Northern Luzon – Beginning Tonight until Wednesday or Thursday (Jul 26-27).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Cagayan including Babuyan-Batanes Island Group, Ilocos Norte, & Northern Apayao – Tonight until Tomorrow Evening (Jul 26).

• Inland Lakes, Coastal and Beachfront areas of Northern Luzon incl. Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 2 to more than 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY EVENING: Just along the western part of the Bashi Channel, about to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves NW…about 150 km NW of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8PM Jul 26: 20.3°N 120.5°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY EVENING: Approaching the coastal waters of Southern China…weakens rapidly into a Category 1 Typhoon, accelerating NNW towards Fujian Province…about 175 km W of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [8PM Jul 27: 22.8°N 118.6°E @ 140-165 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• FRIDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Fujian Provinces, as it moves past across the City of Changting, China…weakens rapidly to a Tropical Storm (TS) while maintaining its NNW track…about 240 km NNW of Xiamen, China [8PM Jul 28: 26.3°N 116.8°E @ 85-100 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 936 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (985 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,210 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  215 km outward from the center.