Super Typhoon BETTY (MAWAR) Advisory No. 02

48-hr Outlook: STY BETTY (MAWAR) is forecast to be slightly weakened for the next two days as it encounters dry-air entrainment, increasing upper-level winds (wind shear) and cooler sea-surface temperatures along the way. The system will be downgraded from STY classification with decreased winds of about 185 kph (Category 3). 

The presence of this howler will trigger the first enhancement of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and will bring much needed rainfall across the agricultural farmlands of Western Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Visayas, and Mindanao beginning tomorrow until next weekend. Meanwhile, residents living in hazard-prone areas must take all necessary precautions against floods and landslides along the above-mentioned areas.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.7°N 131.5°E)
• Distance 1:  840 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2:  1,010 km east of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3:  1,011 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan

• None.

• Northern Luzon – Beginning Tomorrow, Sunday Evening (May 28) through Tuesday Evening (May 30).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None.

• Coastal and Beachfront areas of Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Batanes & Babuyan Island Group.

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Over the northernmost part of the Central Philippine Sea as it resumes its WNW track…no longer a Super Typhoon…about 570 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM May 28: 17.7°N 127.9°E @ 220-270 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further to a Category 3 Typhoon…starts to turn NW-ward slowly while over the SW part of the North Philippine Sea…about 360 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM May 29: 19.1°N 125.5°E @ 185-230 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Category 2 Typhoon as it decelerates northward @ 05 kph while over the westernmost part of the North Philippine Sea…about 290 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2PM May 30: 19.9°N 124.7°E @ 160-195 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 510 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 923 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (960 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,250 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  210 km outward from the center.