Tropical Depression AURING Advisory No. 01

24-hr Outlook: TD AURING is forecast to move very slowly, northwestward over the South Philippine Sea at a decreased forward speed of 03 km/hr. This cyclone could become a Tropical Storm (TS) by tomorrow morning.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the Southeastern Part of the South Philippine Sea  (near 6.7°N 133.0°E)
• Distance 1: 746 km east of Mati City, Davao Oriental
• Distance 2: 798 km east of Tagum City, Davao Del Norte
• Distance 3: 835 km east of Davao City, Davao Del Sur

• Along Siargao-Dinagat-Surigao Del Norte Area, between 7 to 9 AM Sunday, Feb 21 – with Low Strike Probability of <30%.

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a TS status while moving very NW slowly over the South Philippine Sea…about 690 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2PM Feb 18: 7.1°N 132.5°E @ 75 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly becomes a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it maintains its westerly track over the South Philippine Sea…about 536 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental [2PM Feb 19: 6.9°N 131.1°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Turns WNW to NW across the South Philippine Sea with increasing forward speed, approaching the coastal areas of Northern Caraga…about 308 km E of Mati City, Davao Oriental  [2PM Feb 20: 7.4°N 129.0°E @ 100 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (670 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): — km from the center