Tropical Depression AGATON (MEGI) Advisory No. 05

24-hr Outlook: TD AGATON is forecast to weaken into a remnant LPA as it moves East to ESE-ward @ 6 kph and will be along the coastal waters of Tolosa, Leyte by tomorrow afternoon.

Meanwhile, Severe Tropical Storm (STS) MALAKAS almost a Typhoon while moving closer to the Philippine Sea, expected to briefly enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow (Apr 12). However, upon its entrance, STS MALAKAS is forecast to recurve north to NE-ward and exit PAR on Wednesday (Apr 13) as it pulls behind the soon-to-be remants of TD Agaton (Megi).

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the Coastal Waters of Daanbantayan, Cebu (near 11.3°N 124.0°E)
• Distance 1: 74 km west-northwest of Ormoc City, Leyte
• Distance 2: 80 km northeast of Sagay City, Negros Occidental
• Distance 3: 107 km north of Mandaue City, Cebu

• Over Villaba, Leyte – Tonight, with a High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Visayas, Masbate, Ticao Island including Dinagat Island Group.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a remnant LPA while accelerating ESE-ward, emerging along the coastal waters of Tolosa, Leyte…about 32 km SSE of Tacloban City, Leyte [2PM Apr 12: 11.0°N 125.1°E @ 35 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Just a Shallow LPA as its circulation disintegrates while moving across the Philippine Sea (due to the pull from the passing STS Malakas located to the east-northeast)…about 461 km ENE of Tandag City, Surigao Del Sur [2PM Apr 13: 10.8°N 130.0°E @ 20 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 510 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (510 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —