TYPHOON ROLLY (GONI) ADVISORY NO. 10

Issued at: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Sunday, 01 November 2020
Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday, 02 November 2020
Current Status & Outlook ROLLY (GONI) has weakened considerably into a minimal Typhoon after traversing Bicol & Bondoc Peninsulas, and Batangas…moving westward towards the West Philippine Sea. 

24-hr Outlook: TY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to weaken further into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while turning west-northwestward across the West Philippine Sea, with a decreased forward speed of 18 km/hr. The core (eye+eyewall) is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Tuesday early morning.

Where is ROLLY (GONI)? As of 5:00 PM PhT today, November 01…0900 GMT:

  • Location of Center/Eye: In the vicinity of Calatagan, Batangas (near 13.9°N 120.6°E)
  • Distance 1: 46 km west-southwest of Tagaytay City, Cavite
  • Distance 2: 52 km west-northwest of Batangas City, Batangas
  • Distance 3: 70 km southwest of Bacoor City, Cavite
How strong is it? Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min avg): 140 kph near the center…Gustiness: 165 kph.
Past Movement (06 hrs) West @ 40 kph, towards West Philippine Sea
Potential Philippine Landfall Area(s)
  • None
What Philippine areas will be directly affected? Heavy to Extreme Rainfall (50 mm to >100 mm expected for 24 hrs):

  • None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

  • None
Potential Storm Surge/Coastal Flooding Areas+
  • Coastal Areas, Inland Lakes, & Bays of MiMaRoPa & Batangas – Today.

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headedKindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

2-Day Forecast Outlook Summary**
  • MONDAY AFTERNOON: In the vicinity of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal…weakens to a an STS…about 332 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [2PM Nov 02: 14.8°N 117.2°E @ 100 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM 
  • TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside PAR as it weakens slightly…about 706 km WSW of Alaminos City, Pangasinan  [2PM Nov 03: 14.6°N 113.6°E @ 95 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Other Storm’s Meteorological Information
  • 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
  • Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (670 km)
  • Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (610 km)
  • Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 115 km from the center
Information based on data collected by Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. Typhoon2000 (T2k) shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Typhoon2000 (T2K)

 

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PAGASA TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNAL



Image/Screenshot Source: DOST-PAGASA (http://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/signals.jpg)

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