Super Typhoon ROLLY (GONI) Advisory No. 05

The potential landfall area will be on the evening of November 01, along Northern Quezon with a high strike probability of 90%. 

24-hr Outlook: STY ROLLY (GONI) is forecast to maintain its strength for the next 12 hours, before weakening into a Category 4 Super Typhoon on Saturday afternoon (Oct 31). It is then expected to begin sliding west-southwestward with a forward speed of 18 km/hr across the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea. 

• Location: Along the northeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 16.2°N 131.2°E)
• Distance 1: 793 km east-northeast of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 2: 883 km east-northeast of Siruma, Camarines Sur
• Distance 3: 973 km east of Casiguran, Aurora

• Along Real-Infanta Area (Northern Quezon), between 4 to 6 PM Sunday, Nov 01 – with High Strike Probability of 90%.

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 4-Super Typhoon as it moves west-southwestward across the middle portion of the Central Philippine Sea…about 412 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM Oct 31: 15.2°N 127.8°E @ 250 kph].  Confidence Level: MEDIUM 
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Over Lamon Bay, approaching Balesin Island (Quezon)…downgraded to a Category 4 Major Typhoon while turning westward towards Northern Quezon-Rizal Area…about 63 km ESE of Infanta, Quezon  [2PM Nov 01: 14.5°N 122.2°E @ 220 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…weakens gradually into a Category 1 Typhoon after the National Capital Region Area…about 362 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Nov 02: 16.1°N 116.6°E @ 120 kph].  Confidence Level: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 500 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (435 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 50 km from the center