Tropical Depression OBET Advisory No. 05

24-hr Outlook: TD OBET is forecast to become a Tropical Storm (TS) by tomorrow morning, and will continue moving westward, with a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr.  It will then move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on or before noon tomorrow. 

The cyclone’s rainbands and the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) has diminished significantly during the past 6 hours, thus only light occasional rains will be expected across Extreme Northern Luzon.  Improving weather conditions will commence later tonight through Saturday. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the coastal waters of Batan Island, Batanes  (near 20.3°N 122.2°E)
• Distance 1:  27 km southeast of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2: 202 km north of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 132 km northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan

• None.  However, possible minor landfalls are likely along the Batan & Sabtang Islands (Batanes) tonight, between 6 PM to 8 PM with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Batanes & Babuyan Group ~ Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies into a TS as it exits the western border of the PAR, turns WSW over the South China Sea…some 288 km WNW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2PM Oct 22: 19.8°N 118.4°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens further into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while over the South China Sea, maintains its WSW track, towards Central Vietnam…about 381 km S of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 23: 19.0°N 114.6°E @ 95 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 250 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (490 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —