Tropical Depression NENENG Advisory No. 02

24-hr Outlook: TD NENENG is forecast to rapidly intensify into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) by tomorrow morning – while moving west towards Extreme Northern Luzon, with an increased forward speed of 23 km/hr. Its western rainbands will continue to spread across Extreme Northern Luzon, where flood-threatening rainfall and gusty winds of up to 75 km/hr will be felt. 

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southwestern part of the North Philippine Sea (near 18.9°N 127.1°E)
• Distance 1:  523 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 540 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 3: 594 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan

• None. However, a possible minor landfalls are likely along the Babuyan Group of Islands tomorrow, between 2 AM to 2 PM with High Strike Probability of 90%.

• Cagayan Valley including Batanes & Babuyan Group, Ilocos Provinces, Northern Portions of Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) ~ beginning today through Sunday (Oct 16).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into an STS as it approaches the coastal waters of Didacas and Camiguin Islands of Eastern Babuyan along the Eastern Balintang Channel…moving faster westward…about 74 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM Oct 16: 19.0°N 122.6°E @ 95 kph]. It will then traverse the central and western Balintang Channel, passing over or very close to Calayan & Dalupri Islands around late Sunday morning.  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it is about to exit the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 181 km NW of Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte [2AM Oct 17: 19.5°N 119.4°E @ 130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW
• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues gaining strength while moving across the South China Sea, outside PAR, turns southwestward in response to a new surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan)…about 381 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM Oct 18: 19.1°N 117.1°E @ 150 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (675 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): — (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  —