Severe Tropical Storm MARING (KOMPASU) Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: STS MARING (KOMPASU) is forecast to maintain its westerly course at a speed of 24 km/hr, and could intensify further. The core of STS MARING is expected to be along the coastal waters of Ilocos Norte by early tomorrow morning, and will emerge over northern portion of the West Philippine Sea, exiting the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow afternoon (Oct 12). 

The presence of this large Tropical Cyclone will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing cloudy skies with passing “on-and-off” monsoon rains with possible Severe Thunderstorms and gusty winds of 30-60 kph across Central & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, & Mindanao today through tomorrow (Oct 12). The effect of this monsoon weather will be more frequent along the western sections with rough seas across the archipelago.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southern portion of the Balintang Channel or along the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan (near 18.8°N 122.1°E)
• Distance 1: 36 km north of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2: 69 km northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 490 km north-northeast of Metro Manila

• No major landfall expected…just minor landfalls, along the Babuyan Islands between 6-11 PM tonight (Oct 11) – with high strike probability of >90%.  However, if the forecast track will dip more to the south, a major landfall could occur along the coastal areas of Northern Cagayan & Northern Ilocos Norte.

• Northern Luzon – Today until Tomorrow (Oct 12).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Southern Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Northern Cagayan – Today until early Tomorrow (Oct 12).

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Nearing Typhoon classification as it exits the northwestern border of the PAR, while moving westward…about 336 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM Oct 12: 18.9°N 117.5°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it approaches Hainan Island, China…about 479 km SW of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 13: 18.8°N 111.5°E @ 100 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH
• THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Prepares to make landfall over Northern Vietnam…weakens into a Tropical Storm (TS)…about 890 km WSW of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 14: 18.6°N 106.6°E @ 75 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Very Large (1,610 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Very Large (1,750 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): 20 km outward from the center.