Typhoon KARDING (NORU) Advisory No. 10

Residents living along the path of this howler must be fully prepared as the core is expected to begin crossing Central Luzon tonight. Please take all necessary precautions. 

24-hr Outlook: TY KARDING is forecast to weaken further as it turns west-northwestward at an accelerated forward speed of 24 km/hr. The core (eye + eyewall) of this howler will start to cross the provinces of Central Luzon via Nueva Ecija, Northern Bulacan, Northern Pampanga, Tarlac, & Zambales tonight through early tomorrow morning. At around 2AM tomorrow morning, KARDING is forecast to be in the vicinity of  Zambales Mountains, near Masinloc and will then emerge over the West Philippine Sea with decreased winds of 160 kph (Category 2). Meanwhile, Metro Manila and the rest of CaLaBaRZon will be under the typhoon’s inner bands, where gusty winds of 75 to 100 km/hr will be expected during its closest approach to the area tonight (approx. 8-11PM). 

Meanwhile, this typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas and Western Mindanao beginning tonight through tomorrow (Sept 26).

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northern coastal waters of Polillo Island Group (near 15.1°N 122.0°E)
• Distance 1: 55 km northeast of Infanta, Quezon
• Distance 2: 118 km east-southeast of Cabanatuan City, Nueva Ecija
• Distance 3: 117 km east-northeast of Metro Manila

• Somewhere along the Towns of Dingalan (Aurora) & General Nakar (Quezon) – between 7 to 9 PM tonight with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Central Luzon (including Metro Manila) & the Southern Portions of Northern Luzon – today until 8AM tomorrow (Sept 26).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Southern Aurora & Northern Quezon (including Polillo Island Group) – tonight.
• Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, & Zambales – tonight until 5AM tomorrow morning.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Northern Bicol, Aurora, Northern Quezon, & Isabela.

+Waves of 2 to 6 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 1 Typhoon accelerates across the West Philippine Sea, passing just north of Scarborough (Panatag) Shoal…about 276 km W of Alaminos City, Pangasinan [2PM Sept 26: 16.1°N 117.4°E @ 140 kph].  Forecast Confidence: HIGH 
• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it re-intensifies back to Category 3 status while moving WSW-ward across the South China Sea…about 815 km SSW of Hong Kong, China [2PM Sept 27: 15.4°N 111.8°E @ 185 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 400 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 930 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (255 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (315 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  70 km outward from the center