Typhoon JENNY (KOINU) Final Advisory

*This is the Final Advisory on this weather system.

48-hr Outlook: TY JENNY is forecast to maintain its slow westerly track for the next two days, and will continue losing strength due to strong upper-level winds and decreased Oceanic Heat Content (OHC).  On Saturday afternoon (Oct 7), JENNY will be downgraded to a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) as it moves along the coastal waters of Guangdong Province, China, just to the east of Hong Kong. 

Meanwhile, the departure of TY JENNY will pave the way for much improved weather conditions across Luzon this weekend, as the Southwesterly Windflow weakens despite the usual localized thunderstorms expected during the afternoons or evenings.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the northern portion of the South China Sea (near 22.1°N 119.6°E)
• Distance 1:  95 km southwest of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
• Distance 2:  275 km west-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 3:  850 km north of Metro Manila

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of greater than 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Category 1 Typhoon, while moving slowly westward across the South China Sea…about 265 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2PM Oct 06: 22.1°N 117.8°E @ 130-160 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens gradually into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while moving slowly across the coastal waters of Southern China (Guangdong Province)…about 200 km E of Hong Kong, China [2PM Oct 07: 22.1°N 116.0°E @ 100-130 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  956 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (500 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (930 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  140 km outward from the center.