Typhoon JENNY (KOINU) Advisory No. 10

48-hr Outlook: TY JENNY is forecast to make landfall over the southern tip of Taiwan (or along Pingtung Province) within the next 6 hours. Then, emerging later over the southernmost portion of Taiwan Strait, as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late this afternoon or tonight.  On Friday evening, JENNY will gradually weaken into a Category 1 Typhoon while approaching the coastal waters of Eastern Guangdong due to the after-effects of Taiwan’s landmass on its circulation, increasing upper-level winds and decreasing Oceanic Heat Content (OHC).  

Meanwhile, the presence of TY JENNY’s Outer Rainbands and the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered to at times occasional rain showers and severe thunderstorms across Northern Luzon and the western sections of Central & Southern Luzon incl. NCR, Mindoro, & Calamian Group today. It will be more frequent during the afternoon or evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against flash floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over Lanyu Island, Taiwan (near 22.0°N 121.6°E)
• Distance 1:  100 km south-southeast of Taitung, Taiwan
• Distance 2:  175 km north-northwest of Itbayat, Batanes
• Distance 3:  830 km north of Metro Manila

• None

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands ~ Today.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley including Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of greater than 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• THURSDAY EVENING: Weakens into a Category 2 Typhoon as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), while moving westward…about 70 km SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [8PM Oct 05: 22.1°N 119.9°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• FRIDAY EVENING: Weakens gradually into a minimal Typhoon (Cat 1) after being affected by Taiwan’s landmass…moving slowly almost westward approaching the coastal waters of Southern China (Eastern Guangdong)…about 225 km S of Xiamen, China [8PM Oct 06: 22.5°N 117.7°E @ 130-160 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 510 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  940 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (550 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter):  Average (950 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  165 km outward from the center.