Typhoon JENNY (KOINU) Advisory No. 05

48-hr Outlook: There is no change in the forecast track, JENNY will pass approx. 150-200 km north of Batanes Group on Wednesday afternoon (Oct 4). Its  estimated wind speed is expected to reach Category 4 (215 kph) by tomorrow morning, before weakening back t0 Category 3 (195 kph) on Wednesday morning. During this outlook, the western & southern inner rainbands of JENNY will be spreading the Batanes Group of Islands with Tropical Storm-Force Winds of 75-100 kph on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the presence of TY JENNY’s Trough (aka. Extension) and the weakening Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring overcast skies with isolated to scattered to at times occasional rain showers and severe thunderstorms across Luzon incl. NCR and Bicol Region, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Archipelago, Visayas, Western & Southern Mindanao today through Thursday (Oct 05). It will be more frequent during the afternoon or evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against flash floods and landslides incl. lahars that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the southwestern portion of the North Philippine Sea (near 19.4°N 127.1°E)
• Distance 1:  530 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  545 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 3:  840 km northeast of Metro Manila

• None

• Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands ~ beginning Wednesday Evening.

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Along the coastal and beachfront areas of Cagayan Valley including Batanes and Babuyan Group of Islands.

+Waves of greater than 2 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY MORNING: Rapidly strengthens into a Category 4 Typhoon while turning WNW across the southwestern edge of the North Philippine Sea…about 315 km E of Basco, Batanes [8AM Oct 03: 20.3°N 125.0°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• WEDNESDAY MORNING: Approaching the coastal waters of Southeastern Taiwan, as it starts to weaken slightly, down to Category 3, while passing to the north of Batanes Group…about 150 km NNE of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM Oct 04: 21.9°N 122.6°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY MORNING: Exits Southern Taiwan via Kaohsiung City as it weakens further down to Category 2…moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)…about 15 km NW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [8AM Oct 05: 22.7°N 120.2°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation):  25 to 600 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure:  958 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter):  Average (760 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Large (1,000 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  65 km outward from the center.