Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Advisory No. 11

48-hr Outlook: TY GORING is forecast to strengthen back to Category 4 status within the next 24 hours, passing over or very close to Batanes at approx. 8 AM tomorrow.  On Thursday morning, Goring is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves west-northwest on its way to Southern China with decreased wind speeds of 195 kph.

The presence of TY GORING will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon this week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms with gusty winds will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the southeastern portion of the Balintang Channel (near 18.5°N 123.7°E)
• Distance 1:  165 km east of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 2:  280 km southeast of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 3:  520 km north-northeast of Metro Manila, NCR

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies back to Category 4, traversing the southern part of Batanes while moving NW-ward across Luzon Strait…about 65 km SSE of Basco, Batanes [2AM Aug 30: 19.9°N 122.2°E @ 215-260 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerating towards the NW to WNW after moving across Luzon Strait, exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon…about 175 km SSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2AM Aug 31: 21.3°N 119.4°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon, as it approaches the coastal waters of Southern China…about 235 km South of Xiamen, China [2AM Sept 01: 22.4°N 117.7°E @ 165-205 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 525 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 953 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (455 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (440 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  70 km outward from the center.