Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Advisory No. 09

48-hr Outlook: TY GORING is forecast to move northward for the next 12 to 24 hours, and will intensify once again. By early Wednesday morning, Goring is forecast to move NW to WNW after completing its counterclockwise turn and will become a Category 4 Typhoon once again as it starts to traverse the Batanes Group of Islands.

The presence of TY GORING will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon this week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms with gusty winds will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Over the northwestern part of the Central Philippine Sea  (near 16.4°N 124.2°E)
• Distance 1:  205 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2:  265 km north of Pandan, Catanduanes
• Distance 3:  395 km east-northeast of Metro Manila, NCR

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves northward across the Philippine Sea, away from the coastal waters of Eastern Isabela & Cagayan…about 230 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2AM Aug 29: 18.2°N 124.3°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerating towards the NW to WNW across the Philippine Sea, approaching Batanes Group. Reintensifies back to Category 4…about 85 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2AM Aug 30: 20.1°N 122.7°E @ 220-270 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies to Near-Super Typhoon strength as it exits the northwestern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Maintains its WNW movement towards Southern China…about 150 km S of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2AM Aug 31: 21.3°N 120.3°E @ 230-280 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 480 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 945 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (445 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (385 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  40 km outward from the center.