Typhoon GORING (SAOLA) Advisory No. 04

48-hr Outlook: TY GORING is forecast to accelerate southward towards the coastal waters parallel to Isabela-Aurora Shoreline beginning tonight until Sunday (Aug 27). Extreme Rapid Intensification (ERI) remains possible within the next couple of days, where 1-min. sustained winds are likely to reach 200 km/hr (Category 3) while remaining over the open waters of the Philippine Sea.

The presence of TY GORING + its Trough will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon this weekend through early next week.  Isolated, Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected along these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds that will be brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the northeastern edge of the Balintang Channel (near 19.5°N 123.7°E)
• Distance 1:  205 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2:  200 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  310 km north-northeast of Palanan, Isabela

• None

• Northern & Eastern Cagayan ~ Tonight through Sunday Afternoon (Aug 27). 

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Extreme Northern & Eastern Luzon.

+Waves of 3 meters or more in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens into a Category 2 Typhoon while accelerating southward east of  the coastal waters of Eastern Cagayan…about 160 km NE of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Aug 26: 17.9°N 123.6°E @ 175-215 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Undergoes Rapid Intensification (RI), becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves southeastward  just east of the coastal waters of Northern Aurora-Isabela Area – in response to a building High Pressure Steering Ridge off Hong Kong and a developing Monsoon Gyre to the east…about 195 km E of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Aug 27: 16.7°N 124.2°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  HIGH
• MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength as it starts to turn on a counter-clockwise motion (NE–N) across the Philippine Sea, east of the coastal waters of Northern Cagayan…about 315 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela [2PM Aug 28: 17.7°N 125.3°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 515 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 981 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (440 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (560 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  50 km outward from the center.