Tropical Storm GORING Advisory No. 01

48-hr Outlook: TS GORING is forecast to undergo an extraordinary motion, beginning with a slow northward drift today until tomorrow (Fri) and then, a sudden southward track towards the coastal waters parallel to Aurora Province by Saturday through Sunday. Extreme Rapid Intensification (ERI) is likely within the next couple of days, reaching Typhoon classification on Saturday with 1-min. sustained winds of 195 km/hr (Category 3).

The presence of TS GORING & the Monsoon Trough will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) across Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, and Luzon today and through Sunday (Aug 27).  Scattered to Occasional “On-&-Off” rain showers and Severe Thunderstorms will be expected across these areas especially during the afternoon and evening.  Please take all necessary precautions against floods, landslides incl. lahars, storm surges, and high winds brought about by these systems.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the western edge of the North Philippine Sea (near 20.3°N 124.8°E)
• Distance 1:  290 km east of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2:  345 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan
• Distance 3:  445 km northeast of Palanan, Isabela

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• FRIDAY MORNING: Strengthens into a Severe Tropical Storm (STS) while remaining almost stationary…about 280 km E of Basco, Batanes [8AM Aug 25: 20.7°N 124.7°E @ 110-140 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SATURDAY MORNING: Undergoes Extreme Rapid Intensification (ERI), becomes a Category 3 Typhoon as it starts to accelerate southward in response to a building High Pressure Steering Ridge off Hong Kong and a developing Monsoon Gyre to the east…about 250 km E of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM Aug 26: 18.7°N 124.5°E @ 195-240 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  MEDIUM
• SUNDAY MORNING: Nears Super Typhoon classification as it starts to turn eastward across near the coastal waters of Northern Aurora…starts to move eastward…about 255 km ESE of Palanan, Isabela [8AM Aug 27: 16.4°N 124.7°E @ 220-270 kph].  Forecast Confidence:  LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 520 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (365 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Small (450 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  — km outward from the center.