Severe Tropical Storm FLORITA (MA-ON) Advisory No. 05

24-hr Outlook: STS FLORITA (MA-ON) is forecast to cross Northern Cagayan, passing very close to Tuguegarao City this afternoon, and will traverse Kalinga, Apayao and Ilocos Norte tonight. By early tomorrow morning, FLORITA will emerge over the West Philippine Sea and intensify. Its rainbands will bring heavy to extreme rainfall and gusty winds across much of Northern Luzon and some portions of Central Luzon within the next 24 to 36 hours. Life-threatening flash floods and landslides are likely to occur during the storm’s passage. Please take all necessary precautions.

Meanwhile, its trough or extension together with the enhanced Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) will continue to bring scattered to occasional rains with severe thunderstorms across the Whole of Luzon including Metropolitan Manila, MiMaRoPa, Visayas, & Western Mindanao today. Risk of flooding and landslides will be Medium to High.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the Coast Waters of Palanan, Isabela (near 16.8°N 122.9°E)
• Distance 1: 57 km east-southeast of Palanan, Isabela
• Distance 2: 110 km northeast of Casiguran, Aurora
• Distance 3: 154 km southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan

• Along Northern Cagayan Area – between 8 AM to 12 PM today, Tuesday (Aug 23) with High Strike Probability of >90%.

• Northern Luzon – between 8AM today to 8AM tomorrow, Wednesday (Aug 24).

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• Eastern Isabela and Northern Cagayan – Today.

• Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Extreme Northern Luzon.

+Waves of 1 to 3 meters in height are expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Emerges over the West Philippine Sea as it re-intensifies to near-Typhoon strength while moving WNW…about 133 km WNW of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2AM Aug 24: 18.8°N 119.5°E @ 110 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon (TY) while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or over the South China Sea…about 210 km SSE of Hong Kong, China [2AM Aug 25: 20.7°N 115.0°E @ 130 kph].    Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Over Southern China, weakens rapidly into a TS…about 526 km West of Hong Kong, China [2AM Aug 26: 22.7°N 109.0°E @ 65 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 350 mm [Light to Extreme]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 990 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Average (700 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): Average (550 km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts):  35 km outward from the center