Tropical Depression EMONG Advisory No. 04

24-hr Outlook: TD EMONG is forecast to slightly intensify briefly into a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight or early tomorrow morning, before weakening back to TD status. It will continue moving northwestward across the western part of the Bashi Channel by early tomorrow morning at a decreased forward speed of 22 km/hr –  exiting the northwestern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). By tomorrow afternoon, EMONG will be approaching the southern coast of Fujian Province as a dissipating system, before making landfall near Xiamen, China tomorrow evening.

• Location of Center/Eye: Along the eastern coast of Batanes Islands (near 20.3°N 122.1°E)
• Distance 1: 21 km south-southeast of Basco, Batanes
• Distance 2: 126 km north-northeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan
• Distance 3: 202 km north of Santa Ana, Cagayan

• None

• None

Damaging Winds (gusts of more than 100 km/hr expected):

• None

• None

+Waves of 3 meters in height is expected in storm surge-prone areas, particularly in coastal areas on where the Tropical Cyclone is headed. Kindly visit the PAGASA Storm Surge Updates  for more details.

• TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a TD after briefly reaching TS classification…traversing the southernmost portion of Taiwan Strait (outside of PAR) while moving NW-ward, approaching Fujian, China…about 176 km W of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [2PM Jul 06: 22.8°N 118.6°E @ 55 kph].  Forecast Confidence: MEDIUM
• WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating rapidly into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) as it moves NNW across the mountains of Fujian Province, China…about 352 km NW of Fuzhou, China [2PM Jul 07: 28.5°N 117.0°E @ 30 kph].  Forecast Confidence: LOW
  

**Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively… while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 km/hr per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

• 24-hr. Rain Accumulation (across its circulation): 25 to 100 mm [Light to Heavy]
• Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
• Size of Rain Circulation (in Diameter): Small (490 km)
• Size of Wind Circulation (55-kph Wind Diameter): n/a (— km)
• Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None